Trump 'Stuck' in Iran War Quagmire as Tehran Plays Long Game Ahead of U.S. Midterms

Trump threatened to bomb Oman and is escalating economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners after military strikes failed to force a deal.

Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman — a Gulf ally that has historically served as a back-channel mediator — if it interfered with efforts to end the conflict with Iran, using the phrase 'bomb the shit out of them' in comments to Fox News. The threat was not the first of its kind toward Oman, having made a similar warning in May. It came as Trump pivoted away from direct military strikes, which failed to bring Iran to the negotiating table, toward an intensified economic campaign described by U.S. officials as designed to 'collapse' the regime. The White House dismissed prominent criticism of Trump's Iran strategy, saying the analyst was suffering from 'Trump Derangement Syndrome,' as outside commentators described the president as having dug himself 'into the deepest hole of his life' over the conflict. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the incoming measures as the toughest sanctions ever imposed on Tehran, targeting not only Iran but also its trading partners. Trump has also threatened 'tremendous' economic consequences for Iran's trade partners more broadly. Iran has now vowed a 'devastating' response if the U.S. moves ahead with the crushing sanctions package. New analysis suggests Trump is increasingly 'stuck' in an Iran war quagmire ahead of the midterm elections, with Tehran's leadership reportedly content to prolong the standoff and inflict political damage on Trump domestically. Iran's strategy of resistance appears calibrated to frustrate U.S. efforts to declare a diplomatic victory before the elections. The crisis is rippling through the Gulf region. The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing two ballistic missiles toward vessels off the Emirati coast — an accusation Iran denied. Iran responded by warning Gulf states that any support for U.S. military operations would make them participants in the war, and claimed it is tracking U.S. aircraft operating from regional bases. Iran's leadership is publicly acknowledging the economic pressure. Parliament Speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf said that Iran needed to strengthen its economy and reduce its vulnerability to foreign economic coercion. Meanwhile, in a separate but related diplomatic thread, Trump claimed Kim Jong-un has responded to his overtures and defended his decision to scale back joint U.S.-South Korea military drills — a move that drew scrutiny coming just days after North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles. Jared Kushner was also meeting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in Jerusalem to advance a Gaza peace plan, underscoring the interconnected and increasingly strained nature of U.S. regional diplomacy.

Why it matters

The escalation threatens to tighten economic conditions on Iran and could disrupt trade networks across the Gulf region, drawing in third-country partners who do business with Tehran. Threatening a Gulf ally like Oman with military action marks a sharp and unusual diplomatic move that could destabilize regional relationships the U.S. has relied on for mediation.

What's next

Watch whether Iran's trading partners — particularly those in Asia and the Gulf — comply with new U.S. sanctions demands, and whether Oman continues its traditional mediating role despite Trump's threats.

Key facts

• Trump threatened to bomb Oman, a Gulf ally, if it 'gets in the way' of ending the conflict with Iran
• A similar threat against Oman was issued by Trump in May, making this a repeated warning
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described upcoming sanctions as the toughest ever imposed on Iran
• The new sanctions will also target Iran's international trading partners, not just Iran itself
• Iran's parliament speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf publicly acknowledged the need to reduce economic vulnerability
• The U.S. pivot to economic pressure follows a determination that military strikes failed to bring Iran to the negotiating table

Bias & framing notes

The Guardian sources frame Trump's moves in adversarial terms — 'threatening,' 'crushing,' 'fails to bring to the table' — language that is pointed though not inaccurate. Modern Diplomacy leads with Iran's perspective, foregrounding Tehran's resilience framing rather than U.S. policy rationale. No source provides significant space to the Trump administration's own stated justification for the sanctions beyond Bessent's 'toughest ever' characterization. The Oman threat story relies on Trump's own quoted words, which are unambiguous, but context around Oman's actual response is absent across all sources.

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