2 Million War Casualties, Gripen Jet Deal, and Ukrainian Strikes Cripple a Third of Russia's Refining Capacity

A thinktank estimates Russia's invasion has caused over 2 million military casualties, with Russian losses far exceeding Ukraine's.

More than 2 million soldiers have been killed, wounded, or gone missing since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to a new study from a thinktank — with Russian forces accounting for a disproportionately large share of those losses compared to Ukrainian forces. The figure covers the conflict now in its 1,590th day, underscoring the enormous human cost of one of Europe's largest land wars since World War II. Separately, Swedish defence manufacturer Saab signed a contract to deliver 16 Gripen E fighter aircraft to Ukraine in a deal valued at $2.54 billion. The Gripen E is Saab's latest single-engine multirole fighter, and the agreement marks a significant commitment of advanced Western air power to Kyiv. Russian strikes also triggered a hotel fire in Kyiv, adding to a pattern of attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine's capital. On the economic front, Ukrainian drone and ballistic missile strikes have knocked out approximately a third of Russia's refining capacity, triggering petrol shortages across more than half of Russia's regions. Multiple outlets report that the cumulative impact of these strikes is pushing Russia's war economy under increasing strain, with analysts describing it as running on fumes. The developments illustrate how Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian infrastructure to offset battlefield pressures, while continuing to receive advanced Western military support.

Why it matters

A total casualty count exceeding 2 million underlines the war's devastating toll on both militaries after more than four years of fighting. The Saab Gripen deal represents one of the most substantial single aircraft procurement agreements for Ukraine to date, potentially shifting its air combat capabilities.

What's next

Delivery timelines for the 16 Gripen E jets and further details on Ukrainian pilot training have not been specified in current reporting.

Key facts

• Over 2 million military casualties — killed, wounded, and missing — have been recorded since Russia's invasion, per a thinktank study
• Russian forces have suffered far higher losses than Ukrainian forces, according to the same study
• Swedish defence company Saab signed a $2.54 billion contract to deliver 16 Gripen E fighter jets to Ukraine
• The Gripen E is Saab's newest multirole single-engine fighter aircraft
• A Russian attack triggered a hotel fire in Kyiv on day 1,590 of the war
• The war has now been ongoing for 1,590 days as of the most recent briefing

Bias & framing notes

Both sources are Guardian war briefings, so there is no independent second outlet to cross-check the casualty figures or the Saab deal against. The casualty study is attributed to a thinktank but the thinktank is not named in the available reporting, making independent verification difficult. The framing of Russian losses as 'far higher' than Ukrainian losses reflects the thinktank's conclusions, which Russia would dispute.

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